Project 05
Calgary's emergency shelters operate near capacity, making resource planning difficult. This project forecasts daily shelter occupancy rates using 83K+ records, enabling proactive capacity planning and early warnings when demand is underestimated.
Interactive app
Current and historical occupancy rates across Calgary emergency shelters with daily breakdowns
Multi-day ahead occupancy predictions with confidence bands and seasonal adjustments
Automated 90% capacity warnings with shelter-level monitoring and trend indicators
Seasonal patterns, day-of-week effects, and long-term occupancy trend analysis
Performance
Approach
Fetched daily shelter occupancy data from Calgary Open Data. Engineered temporal features, 7-day and 30-day rolling averages, and lag features per shelter. Trained Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost regressors. Used a temporal train/test split (80/20) to prevent data leakage. Generated multi-day-ahead forecasts with 90% capacity alerts.